As we approach the end of the year, looking back at the full year performance of the mobile robot industry, although the overall economy has rebounded in a wave like and tortuous manner, it still lags behind market expectations at the beginning of the year. In this context, mobile robot companies continue to compete for customers and orders, and the atmosphere of internal competition continues. The cost, delivery, and overseas expansion of the competition are crucial

However, whether actively or passively following up, the direction of the competition is the key to determining the future of enterprises to adhere to the fundamentals and achieve healthy development. Especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, without goals, worthless internal competition will only be accelerated and eliminated by the industry.

If the industry's internal competition is seen as a surface, then its underlying is differentiation and integration.

One is the differentiation of enterprise competition, with top enterprises relying on better financial strength, industry chain integration ability, risk resistance ability, and customer accumulation. Through resource integration, they further expand their position with follow-up enterprises, and the market concentration is further enhanced.

The second is the differentiation at the downstream application level. On the one hand, there is strong demand in the new energy field, with limited incremental demand for 3C, semiconductors, medical, engineering machinery, etc. On the other hand, enterprises have begun to make targeted layouts, focusing on their respective advantageous industries, integrating their own resources to strengthen the moat, and widening the gap with other enterprises.

Thirdly, there is further differentiation in investment and financing at the capital level, with capital investors being more cautious in their investments. Compared to 2022, obtaining large amounts of financing is becoming more difficult, and capital investment behavior is becoming more cautious. Capital flows towards projects with higher certainty are also becoming more pronounced. In addition, the entire investment and financing market is showing a trend of "people retreating and the country advancing".

Faced with internal competition, especially in the current situation where the BOM of mobile robots is almost transparent, invisible costs become particularly important. One is delivery cost. How to break through the pain points of scenarios and industries, shorten delivery cycles, improve delivery quality, and solve delivery difficulties has become an important issue of concern for industry enterprises this year. The second is the value of software. In the context of increasingly homogeneous hardware, some enterprises have begun to focus on software as a highlight of differentiation. They use software to define hardware, empower hardware, improve software usability, optimize and integrate logistics efficiency, highlight the value of software, and make customers pay for the value of software, thereby increasing profit margins.

In response to internal competition, some companies in the industry have begun to extend their industrial chains, and the boundaries between upstream and downstream have become blurred. On the one hand, ontology enterprises have started to provide solution services and have started to develop core components such as controllers, motors, and sensors themselves; On the other hand, integrators are beginning to develop and design hardware, highlighting their technological innovation capabilities and core competitiveness; In addition, some component companies have begun to enter the ontology track.

Avoiding internal competition, domestic enterprises regard overseas markets as strategic locations, and "training domestically and making money overseas" has become a consensus in the industry.

In 2013, the sales of mobile robots in China were about 2950 units. At that time, the sales of industrial robots in China were 36560 units. In 2023, the sales of mobile robots in China are expected to reach 102000 units. At this time, the sales of industrial robots in China are about 316000 units, and the size gap between mobile robots and industrial robots in China continues to narrow. Through ten years of accumulation and accumulation, China's localization rate of mobile robots will exceed 95% by 2023. Looking around the world, China's mobile robot shipments account for over 50% of the global total. Looking ahead to 2024, what will happen to China's mobile robot industry?

Through sorting out the mobile robot industry, combining macro data and research data, GGII adheres to a non pessimistic and non optimistic attitude, striving for objectivity, and deeply analyzes the top ten predictions of the mobile robot industry in 2024:

Industry level:

Trend 1: In 2024, photovoltaics, automobiles and components, lithium batteries, 3Cs, and semiconductors will remain the main battlefields for mobile robots. The photovoltaic and lithium battery industries will undergo structural adjustments, and market demand growth will slow down. The concentration of mobile robot manufacturers deeply involved in these industries will continue to increase. It is expected that the demand for mobile robots in the new energy industry (lithium batteries, photovoltaics, etc.) will account for about 35% in 2024.

Trend 2: The price war among enterprises continues, but the situation has eased to some extent. In 2024, industry cost pressure will still run through the entire industry chain. In this context, the refined division of labor in the industry may gradually be recognized, and domestic component enterprises will accelerate the process of localization and substitution based on cost advantages, especially in the fields of controllers, 3D LiDAR, etc.

Product level:

Trend 3: Industrial AMR: In 2024, the sales volume of China's industrial AMR market reached nearly 45000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 50%. The market share will exceed 32%, and photovoltaics will still be the largest application market for industrial AMR.

Trend 4: Unmanned Forklifts: In 2024, unmanned forklifts will continue to be the fastest-growing sub category, with sales expected to exceed 30000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of over 60%, and a market share of about 22%. Among them, pallet type unmanned forklifts and stacker type unmanned forklifts will occupy the main market share, while miniaturization, high lifting, and narrow channel unmanned forklifts will still be the hot topics in 2024. In addition, the new form of unmanned forklifts for specific scenarios will still be the main direction of product innovation.

Trend 5: Class KIVA AGV: In 2024, the market share of Class KIVA AGV will further shrink and continue to decline to below 35%.

Trend 6: Material Box Robots: It is expected that the sales volume of the Chinese material box robot market is expected to exceed 7000 units by 2024, and the market competition pattern is becoming stable. More manufacturers are shifting their business focus to overseas markets.

Trend 7: Four way Shuttle: The number of entrants continues to increase, and it is expected that the sales of China's four-way shuttle market will reach around 11000 units by 2024, with pallet four-way shuttle vehicles occupying the dominant position, with sales expected to reach around 8500 units.

Trend 8: Composite Mobile Robots: In 2024, the sales volume of China's composite mobile robot market is expected to exceed 2300 units, and the industry is still in its early stages. The 3C and semiconductor fields are the largest application markets, and cost optimization, as well as verification, deepening, and expansion of application scenarios, are the focus of the development of composite mobile robots. Meanwhile, before the standardization of composite mobile robots is completed, delivery capability and delivery cost will be the focus of competition and competition among manufacturers.

Market level:

Trend 9: Uncertainties in the external environment still exist, coupled with the slowdown in manufacturing investment, GGII has lowered its market expectations for the mobile robot industry. It is expected that China's mobile robot sales will reach 138000 units in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 35% and a market size of nearly 17 billion yuan.

Trend 10: In 2024, the concentration of the mobile robot market will continue to increase, and the competitive advantage of the top 5 enterprises will be further strengthened. The CR5 market share will exceed 50%, highlighting the Matthew effect. In order to cope with the integration and clearance of the head effect and the market, some enterprises will shift their market response strategies from guerrilla warfare to battlefield warfare.

Write at the end:

The industry is always hoping that next year will be better than this year, and in 2022, it is thinking that the industry will be better after the epidemic. The fact is that the industry's growth rate in 2023 is lower than that in 2022. In 2023, demand will tighten, and the industry will forge ahead. Facing the upcoming year of 2024, there is still high uncertainty in the economy. Although China's economic resilience is still strong, the future will be a tortuous rise, and the turning point cannot be predicted.

For the mobile robot industry, facing the uncertainty of economic development and cyclical fluctuations in downstream industries, it is difficult to recreate the next "new energy industry". The only thing enterprises can do is seize opportunities in the cycle and seek certainty in uncertainty. The greatest certainty is their own basic foundation, which is based on the product strength of equipment software and hardware, resource integration ability based on the industry chain, and business understanding ability based on industry scenarios... On the basis of consolidating the basic foundation, insight into industry opportunities, seize cyclical opportunities, and wait for them to bloom.